The counterfactual that most scholars point to is the combination of Tippecanoe and Procter’s retreat: if the confederacy had arrived at the Thames in better shape, with Prophetstown intact and the spiritual movement still credible, the result might have been different.

But “might have been different” is not “would have succeeded.” The material power imbalance between the United States and any combination of Native nations was enormous, and growing every year.

The American population was expanding rapidly.

American industrial capacity was far beyond what any Native confederacy could match.

The long-term demographic and economic trends were overwhelmingly unfavorable.

What Tecumseh was attempting was not a permanent solution but a brake — a way of establishing a boundary that would hold long enough to create something more permanent.

Whether that brake could have held, even in the most favorable circumstances, is genuinely uncertain.