Gavin Newsom Faces Growing Scrutiny as 2028 Presidential Race Takes Shape
As the 2028 presidential race begins to take form, California Governor Gavin Newsom has quickly become a central figure in the Democratic primary. Early polling positions him as the frontrunner, yet beneath the surface, troubling signs are emerging that could undermine his chances.
National approval ratings reveal weaknesses in key voter groups and raise questions about whether Newsom’s early lead will hold up in an increasingly competitive and complex political environment.
Governor Newsom, a prominent Democrat known for his progressive policies and leadership of the nation’s most populous state, has faced relentless criticism from Republicans over California’s high taxes and strict pandemic restrictions. Despite this, he has gained significant support among Democratic voters.
A recent Yahoo News/YouGov poll from September 2 shows Newsom leading the Democratic pack with 21% support among registered Democrats. He edges out notable contenders such as Vice President Kamala Harris, who garnered 19%, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 12%, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 10%.
However, the picture changes when looking at broader national approval ratings. A Cygnal survey conducted on September 9, sampling 1,500 likely voters, revealed that Newsom holds a net approval rating of -5—only 38% approve of him while 43% disapprove. Of particular concern is his dismal standing among non-college voters, who disapprove of him by a striking 21-point margin.
This demographic is critical, especially in swing states like Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where winning over these voters can determine the outcome of the general election. For comparison, Vice President Kamala Harris lost this group by 13 points in 2024, making Newsom’s deficit significantly more daunting.
Swing voters also express considerable reservations about Newsom, with a 12-point disapproval gap (43% disapproving vs. 29% approving). This is a crucial factor given the rise of independents, who now make up about 43% of the American electorate.
Winning over these voters will be essential, and Newsom’s current standing suggests challenges ahead. Furthermore, among college-educated men—a demographic that narrowly favored Harris over Trump in 2024—Newsom’s approval rating is underwater at 46% approval to 49% disapproval.
Even among highly active voters—those who regularly participate in consecutive elections—Newsom struggles to gain a clear majority, holding a near-even split with 44% approving and 46% disapproving. This group is particularly important since they tend to have the highest turnout rates, meaning their support is often decisive in elections.
Additional concerns have been raised regarding Newsom’s favorability among religious Black Democrats in early primary states such as South Carolina. Sixteen percent of this group view him unfavorably, a significant obstacle in a coalition that Democratic candidates traditionally rely upon.
These vulnerabilities suggest that Newsom’s road to the presidency could be fraught with challenges.
Political analysts warn that these gaps in support might provide an opening for potential Republican opponents, such as Vice President JD Vance, particularly in head-to-head matchups with high-turnout voters and religious Black communities.
Compounding these challenges, Newsom recently ignited controversy with a cryptic social media post aimed at Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. The post stated, “Kristi Noem is going to have a bad day today. You’re welcome, America,” which was widely perceived as a threatening message. This prompted California’s acting U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli to refer the matter to the Secret Service. The incident has intensified questions about Newsom’s messaging style and political judgment at a critical moment as the 2028 campaign gears up.
Conclusion
Though Gavin Newsom currently enjoys a lead in Democratic primary polling, a deeper look into national approval ratings reveals significant weaknesses that could jeopardize his chances in a general election.
His struggles with non-college voters, independents, college-educated men, highly engaged voters, and religious Black Democrats highlight the complex electoral landscape he must navigate. Coupled with recent controversies surrounding his communication, Newsom’s path to the presidency is uncertain and filled with potential pitfalls.
As the 2028 race continues to develop, political observers, allies, and rivals alike will be watching these fault lines closely. The question remains: can Newsom maintain his early frontrunner status and build the broad coalition necessary for a successful presidential bid? Only time will tell if he can transform early momentum into lasting political viability.