Whispers of political maneuvering are stirring in California as Governor Gavin Newsom prepares to advance a redistricting plan critics say could favor Democrats.
With the Trump administration simultaneously encouraging Republican-led states to redraw their maps, questions are mounting over whether these actions reflect strategic democracy—or something more calculated.
Recent polls reveal voter skepticism, yet the governor appears undeterred, suggesting a high-stakes game that could reshape congressional control for years.
A recent survey shows that California voters overwhelmingly favor keeping the state’s independent redistricting commission, despite Governor Newsom advocating for transferring that authority to the Democratic-controlled legislature.
Newsom’s plan aims to redraw political maps in ways that could benefit Democrats, echoing President Trump’s efforts to encourage Republican-led states, such as Texas, to pursue similar strategies. Research from the POLITiCo-Citrin Center-Possibility Lab indicates that only 36% of registered California voters support returning congressional redistricting power to lawmakers, while 64% prefer the independent commission remain in place.
Breaking down results by party affiliation, 66% of Republicans, 61% of Democrats, and 72% of independents support the commission. Among independents, just 28% favor legislative control, according to the Washington Examiner’s reporting of the survey.
A separate survey of policy influencers, described by POLITICO Pro as well-versed in the state’s political landscape, largely mirrored party loyalties. Ninety-one percent of Republican influencers favored retaining the commission, while a narrow majority of Democratic influencers (51%) supported granting lawmakers authority.
“I was somewhat surprised by this, given the strong push from Newsom and the national Democratic Party to counter Texas,” said Jack Citrin, UC Berkeley political science professor and co-author of the poll, in an interview with POLITICO.
Governor Newsom plans to launch his redistricting initiative on Thursday, following the Trump administration’s refusal to scale back efforts encouraging GOP-led states to revise congressional maps. Citrin noted that the survey results were unsurprising, given that Californians have consistently supported the creation of an independent commission. “This outcome is hardly unexpected, considering California has twice approved this independent review commission at the ballot box,” he said. “There is widespread mistrust and skepticism toward politicians and the Legislature, which is clearly reflected here.”
So far, Newsom has proceeded cautiously, aiming to present voters with a question in a special election this November on adopting maps favorable to Democrats. He has been monitoring developments in Texas, where Democratic lawmakers continue working to return and vote on the state’s own redistricting maps, according to the Examiner.
Newsom does not plan to eliminate the commission entirely but seeks to temporarily pause its operations. His objective is to pass a constitutional amendment allowing legislative-approved maps to be used in the 2026, 2028, and 2030 election cycles. The governor expressed confidence that voters would support the plan: “I am confident the electorate will approve it. I believe they understand the importance of this issue,” Newsom said at a press conference last Friday. “We live in the most un-Trump state in America.”
Recent internal polls from Newsom’s office suggest a slim majority of voters back the redistricting plan, with support rising when the proposal is framed in partisan terms. However, the latest survey could present a hurdle for the governor’s efforts to strengthen Democratic chances of regaining control of the House. The proposed maps are expected to be released by Friday. Citrin added, “If this represents the starting point, then they are likely to face a significant challenge.”
In a related development, an Illinois judge recently denied the state’s request to prosecute Texas House Democrats who fled to Illinois to block a redistricting measure that could have awarded Republicans five additional U.S. House seats. On Wednesday, Judge Scott Larson of the Eighth Circuit Court of Illinois rejected Texas’ motion to extend a civil arrest warrant issued on August 8 for the lawmakers, ruling that his court lacked jurisdiction. Larson concluded that Paxton and Burrows “failed to provide a legal basis for the court” and stated that Illinois law enforcement could not be compelled to execute civil warrants against “nonresidents temporarily present in the State of Illinois.”
Conclusion
Despite strong public support for California’s independent redistricting commission, Governor Newsom is pushing a plan to temporarily suspend its authority to implement maps favoring Democrats. Polling data reveal deep partisan divisions and cautious voter optimism, while legal battles in other states, such as Illinois’ rejection of Texas’ attempt to arrest fleeing House Democrats, highlight the national tension surrounding redistricting.
Experts like Jack Citrin suggest that Newsom’s plan faces significant challenges, but the governor remains confident that voters understand the stakes. As new maps are set to be unveiled, California finds itself at the intersection of voter trust, political strategy, and legal scrutiny—a scenario that could shape congressional power for years to come.