Gavin Newsom’s 2028 Lead Shows Cracks as JD Vance Eyes Opportunity
As whispers of the 2028 presidential race grow louder, fresh polling data suggest California Governor Gavin Newsom’s early frontrunner status among Democrats may not be as unshakable as once believed.
While Newsom currently tops the Democratic field, emerging weaknesses among crucial voter blocs open the door for Republican Vice President JD Vance to seize the moment—raising serious questions about how stable Newsom’s advantage truly is.
The Current Landscape: Newsom Leads, But How Securely?
California’s Gavin Newsom, a long-time Republican target over high taxes and pandemic restrictions, stands out as an early Democratic frontrunner. According to a September 2 Yahoo News/YouGov survey, Newsom leads the Democratic primary pack with 21% support. Close behind are Vice President Kamala Harris at 19%, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 12%, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 10%.
Yet, beneath this surface lead, cracks are emerging. A September 9 Cygnal poll of 1,500 likely voters reveals a net approval rating for Newsom at -5, with only 38% approving and 43% disapproving. The numbers point to significant struggles in key constituencies vital to securing the presidency.
Vulnerabilities Among Key Voters
Newsom faces a steep challenge with non-college voters, who disapprove of him by a staggering 21-point margin (48% to 27%). This gap is notably larger than the 13-point deficit Kamala Harris encountered with the same demographic in 2024, signaling persistent Democratic difficulties in battleground states such as Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Swing voters are another critical hurdle. Newsom trails among this group by 12 points, with only 29% approving compared to 41% disapproving. Given that 43% of Americans now identify as independents—outnumbering both Democrats and Republicans at 28% apiece—Newsom’s limited appeal to these voters could seriously jeopardize his national prospects.
Additional challenges appear among college-educated men, who disapprove of Newsom 49% to 46%, and highly active voters—those who participated in the last four major elections—where his approval is slightly underwater at 44% to 46%. Skepticism within segments of Black voters, especially those who regularly attend religious services, adds further complexity. Sixteen percent of Black Democrats who worship monthly or more hold unfavorable views of Newsom, raising concerns about support in early primary states like South Carolina.
Republican Challenger JD Vance Watches Closely
Vice President JD Vance, expected to clinch the Republican nomination, is reportedly strategizing to exploit these Democratic weaknesses. Political analysts warn that Vance could capitalize on Newsom’s faltering support among swing voters, non-college voters, and certain demographic groups, potentially shifting the dynamics of the 2028 general election.
Recent Controversies Add Pressure
Compounding Newsom’s challenges, a recent cryptic social media post from his press team targeting Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem sparked controversy. The message—“Kristi Noem is going to have a bad day today. You’re welcome, America.”—drew widespread attention and prompted Acting U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli to refer the matter to the Secret Service, intensifying scrutiny on Newsom’s campaign.
Conclusion: A Lead Under Threat
While Gavin Newsom currently holds a lead in the Democratic primary for 2028, polling reveals significant vulnerabilities among vital voter groups—non-college voters, independents, swing voters, and certain demographics. With Vice President JD Vance poised to leverage these weaknesses and controversies stirring public concern, Newsom’s path to the presidency appears far from guaranteed. The coming years will test whether he can broaden his appeal beyond his liberal base and address these early warning signs to secure a viable, unassailable campaign.