Europe Confronts the End of Security Assumptions
For decades, Europe lived with a quiet assumption: large-scale conflict was a thing of the past. Yet behind the closed doors of Brussels and national capitals, a starkly different reality is taking shape.
Reports of troop movements, sharp warnings from Washington, and Russian threats have set off a flurry of consultations, leaving officials scrambling to answer a question they never thought they’d face: is Europe ready if war comes knocking?
The New Reality
Europe’s post–Cold War security framework—built on diplomacy, economic ties, and U.S. support through NATO—no longer guarantees safety. Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, combined with more explicit messaging from Washington, has accelerated a strategic reassessment. Across EU institutions and national capitals, officials are no longer asking whether Europe should prepare—they are asking whether it can.
The shock of the Ukraine conflict shattered assumptions of immunity to large-scale war. U.S. officials now expect Europe to shoulder more responsibility for defense, financially and operationally. In late 2024, EU leaders approved a €90 billion loan to support Ukraine, while the European Commission unveiled defense initiatives aimed at deterrence by 2030. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has signaled readiness for a prolonged confrontation, and NATO officials warn that Russian forces could threaten NATO territory within five years.
Popular Readiness Lags
Public willingness to engage in defense tells a more complicated story. A Euronews poll of nearly 10,000 EU citizens found that three-quarters would not personally fight to defend borders. Concern is highest in countries bordering Russia—Poland, Lithuania, and Denmark rank Russian military pressure among their top threats—yet across Europe, armed conflict now ranks alongside economic and energy concerns.
Eastern and Northern European nations are responding decisively. Lithuania has strengthened border defenses, Latvia introduced mandatory national defense education, and Finland, Estonia, and Sweden have revived civil defense measures, including household crisis guides. Search trends indicate growing public attention to shelters and emergency kits, reflecting heightened awareness of potential conflict.
Coordinating Defense Across the EU
At the EU level, the most ambitious defense coordination push in history is underway. Defense spending exceeded €300 billion in 2024, with €131 billion allocated for aerospace and defense in the 2028–2034 budget—five times the previous cycle. Programs like Readiness 2030 aim to enable rapid troop movements across borders, while a proposed “Military Schengen” seeks to reduce bureaucratic obstacles. Hundreds of infrastructure points are being upgraded at an estimated cost of €70–100 billion.
Platforms like ReArm Europe and funding mechanisms including the European Defence Industry Programme and Strategic Armament Financing Envelope are accelerating joint production of drones, missiles, air defense, and naval assets. U.S. strategy papers highlight Europe’s relative weakness, pressing the EU to assume primary responsibility for NATO’s conventional defense by 2027, even as European leaders stress strategic autonomy.
Experts caution that funding alone cannot overcome systemic constraints, including slow procurement and limited industrial capacity. Nevertheless, €50 billion in requests under the SAFE facility signal rising demand for advanced defense systems. Europe now faces a narrow corridor between awareness and capability: strategic complacency is over, but readiness must keep pace with escalating threats.
Conclusion
Europe stands at a crossroads, balancing urgency with capability. The era of assuming security was guaranteed is over. The coming years will test whether European nations can translate recognition of threat into concrete readiness—and whether, when history demands action, they will be prepared to respond.