More than a decade before COVID-19 reshaped the world, science writer David Quammen issued a warning many ignored—until reality caught up. In his 2012 book Spillover, Quammen foresaw how a novel virus, emerging from wildlife in a market somewhere in China, could ignite a global pandemic. Today, he’s raising the alarm once again—this time about a threat he believes may be even deadlier: bird flu. As H5N1 spreads swiftly through livestock and occasionally jumps to humans, Quammen warns the window to act is closing fast.
David Quammen is no stranger to prophetic insight.
His prescient warnings in Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic outlined a scenario remarkably similar to the COVID-19 outbreak, long before it happened. The virus he described—a coronavirus leaping from wild animals to humans—soon became a devastating reality.
Now, Quammen’s gaze has shifted to avian influenza, particularly the H5N1 strain, which has been racing through poultry farms, wild birds, and livestock worldwide. With over a thousand dairy herds and nearly 170 million chickens affected, alongside more than 70 documented human infections—including fatalities—he believes this virus could be the next global menace.
“I’m deeply concerned about bird flu,” Quammen told the Daily Mail. “If you asked virologists today which virus is most likely to cause the next pandemic, H5N1 would be front and center.”
Though human-to-human transmission hasn’t been confirmed yet, scientists caution that the virus’s constant replication and genetic shifts could eventually allow it to spread between people. Quammen likens this to a massive roulette wheel spinning billions of times—as the virus copies itself across countless animals, the odds increase that dangerous mutations will emerge.
“If you keep spinning that wheel long enough,” he warned, “it’s only a matter of time before it lands on the worst possible outcome.”
Despite the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention labeling the immediate risk as low, global health experts urge governments to ramp up surveillance and strengthen biosecurity measures to avoid a repeat of the early COVID-19 response failures.
In early 2025, the U.S. reported its first bird flu-related death: an elderly individual in Louisiana who had contact with infected backyard poultry. Genetic analysis revealed the virus had mutated within the patient, potentially worsening the disease’s severity.
While most human cases remain mild and tied to direct animal contact, several unexplained infections have sparked concern over possible unnoticed human transmission.
More unsettlingly, traces of bird flu have been detected in milk sold in American stores. Quammen warns that farmworkers, exposed to infected animals daily, could become unwitting bridges for the virus’s spread beyond agricultural settings.
He sharply criticized the conditions in large-scale industrial farms, calling them “evolutionary petri dishes.” Overcrowded and unhygienic, these operations create ideal environments for viruses to rapidly multiply and mutate.
“The problem isn’t just a global population of 8 billion,” Quammen explained. “It’s how many people consume animal protein raised in ways that amplify these risks.”
He emphasized that humanity stands at a crossroads: our dietary choices, farming practices, and environmental stewardship could either accelerate or stave off the next pandemic.
Quammen’s final caution is clear and urgent: “Every time a virus crosses from animals to humans, it’s playing a high-stakes evolutionary game. With each replication, the chances of a new outbreak grow—unless we fundamentally change how we live.”
In Summary
David Quammen’s stark warning reminds us that the shadow of a new pandemic still looms—and this time, bird flu may be the spark. The virus’s rapid spread among billions of farm animals and its increasing human cases underscore a looming threat. Each viral replication in overcrowded farming conditions is like a spin on a roulette wheel, raising the odds that a dangerous strain will emerge.
The message couldn’t be clearer: inaction is not an option. From boosting global monitoring and farm biosecurity to rethinking our food systems and environmental impact, decisive action is critical. As Quammen stresses, how we farm, eat, and care for the planet will determine whether we can prevent—or inadvertently trigger—the next global health crisis.