The confederacy’s best chance was probably in the years between 1810 and 1812, before the Battle of Tippecanoe.

If Tenskwatawa had held the confederacy together through that period without the premature confrontation at Tippecanoe, the movement might have reached the War of 1812 in stronger condition — more nations organized, more warriors committed, Prophetstown intact as a logistics base.

A British victory in the War of 1812, or even a more favorable peace settlement, might have produced international recognition of a Native boundary that the United States would have been compelled to respect for some period.

The British had genuine strategic interest in a buffer zone between Canada and the United States, and if they had emerged from the war in a stronger position, they might have pressed for such recognition in the peace terms.